Lives saved or deaths postponed? Calculating the cost of lockdowns

first_imgThe response to the disease had led to an unprecedented reorganization of societies, with businesses shuttered, stay-at-home orders, medical facilities refocused on treating COVID-19 patients.The economic impact of the measures has caused alarm and division. ‘No choice’Will the long-term ramifications of lockdowns counteract the effect they had on slowing contagion? In a study published on Monday, Imperial College researchers estimated that lockdowns had prevented around 3.1 million deaths in 11 European countries. On Wednesday, Imperial epidemiologist Neil Ferguson told a British parliamentary committee that because of the exponential spread of the virus, locking down just a week earlier would have reduced the final death toll by “at least a half”. But any modeling is based on assumptions — in this case calculations of what would have happened if action had not been taken. Restrictions were imposed after predictions of potentially enormous tolls, said Arthur Caplan, professor of bioethics at New York University.”I don’t think politicians and leaders had a choice,” he said. “If you saw those numbers in the millions of deaths, you had to take steps because you would have had a broken health system, a public that wouldn’t have come out anyway because they would have been terrified.”Caplan said there should be a “broad set of voices” in determining whether the lockdowns were the right solution, but added that the question would be “political”. Topics : No silver linings Now societies are bearing the strain of both a deadly pandemic and a huge economic shock.The virus undercuts the usual “silver linings” of an economic downturn, said Burgard. Populations have been confined inside, reducing access to beneficial physical exercise.People struggling with bereavement, mental health issues or unemployment find it harder to access their normal support networks, with even visits to family members restricted.   And the healthcare sector itself has been battered by the virus, with frontline staff at risk of infection while treatments for other illnesses have been postponed.Even in normal times, any positive effects seen in economic downturns are often in richer nations. “The opposite seems true in many low- and middle-income countries, where mortality actually increases during recession,” said Thomas Hone, a public health researcher at Imperial College London. He said this may suggest that what protects people from the harms of recessions are “strong health systems and social security nets”.Many fear the scale of the pandemic and economic downturn will disproportionately hurt the most vulnerable.UN agencies and the vaccine alliance Gavi have said virus restrictions caused immunizations to be disrupted in nearly 70 countries, affecting some 80 million children under the age of one and threatening a resurgence of preventable diseases like polio and measles.The World Food Program estimates the number of people facing acute hunger this year could nearly double — to 265 million.  While lockdowns undoubtedly avoided large numbers of deaths from the new coronavirus, the repercussions of the pandemic response are expected to blight economies and health systems long after restrictions are lifted.So how can we quantify the costs and benefits of one of the largest public health interventions ever? “This is a very difficult calculation to make,” Sarah Burgard, a sociologist at the University of Michigan, told AFP. center_img ‘Unknown situation’ In a study published in 2000, the American economist Christopher Ruhm asked a provocative question: “Are recessions good for your health?”His research found that a rise in unemployment sharpened stresses on mental health, causing increases in substance abuse and suicide. But there were unexpected benefits for physical health: road accidents and pollution reduced, while people had more time for exercise.   Reflecting on his work two decades later, Ruhm said that in a normal economic slump “when unemployment was high, mortality was low and vice versa”. But the coronavirus-induced recession is not a normal economic downturn. “We are in an unknown situation,” Ruhm said in an April online talk for the University of Virginia, where he is a professor of public policy and economics.”I think it may be the first time in history that we are actually deliberately creating a recession, not because we want to create a recession, but because this health threat is so real.” According to official counts, the virus has infected at least 7.4 million people around the world and more than 415,000 have died.Burgard said in the end it may prove difficult to untangle how many deaths were caused by COVID-19 and how many by “the chaos and fallout” of the crisis. “I don’t have a lot of faith that we are going to be able to come up with a very clear number,” she said. Even if a figure is reached, decisions over its implications would be “heavily political and ethically complex”.last_img read more

Trump in Tokyo: Sumo Wrestling, Golf and Cheeseburgers

first_imgAbe is trying to maintain a positive relationship with the U.S. amid growing trade tensions as well as the threat of auto tariffs. There is also the hanging threat from North Korea and Trump’s recent dismissal of the notion that NoKo’s missiles could reach Japan.According to Japanese officials, Trump and Abe also enjoyed lunch together, which included cheeseburgers made with U.S. beef.On Monday, Trump will become the first foreign leader to meet with Japan’s new emperor, Naruhito, since the latter ascended to the throne on May 1. President Trump seems to be having quite the time in Japan.On Sunday, he had the opportunity to present a special trophy to a sumo tournament winner in Tokyo.The honor was part of a “sumo diplomacy” effort by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to befriend the American president with some of his favorites: wrestling matches, cheeseburgers and golf. Trump has stated that he finds sumo wrestling “fascinating.”Trump and First Lady Melania joined Abe and his wife, Akie, to watch the tournament in person.Tonight in Tokyo, Japan at the Ryōgoku Kokugikan Stadium, it was my great honor to present the first-ever U.S. President’s Cup to Sumo Grand Champion Asanoyama. Congratulations! A great time had by all, thank you @AbeShinzo!!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 26, 2019 The president’s four-day state visit to Japan is intended to emphasize the strong bond between the two nations. Earlier in the day. the two leaders played golf.Great morning of golf with Prime Minister @AbeShinzo at Mobara Country Club in Chiba, Japan!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 26, 2019last_img read more

Antonio Conte rules out Nemanja Matic leaving Chelsea for Juventus

first_imgAntonio Conte says Nemanja Matic remains a key part of the Chelsea squad.The Serbian midfielder has been persistently linked with a move away from the Premier League club this summer, with Juventus said to keen on luring him to Turin.With N’Golo Kante moving to Stamford Bridge last month, there has been speculation that Conte could be willing to cash in on Matic.But the Italian insists that is not the case and he fully expects the 28-year-old to continue with the Blues.“Nemanja is an important player for me, and he knows this,” said Conte, who will take charge of his first Premier League game against West Ham on Monday.“There isn’t a problem with him – Nemanja was a Chelsea player and is a Chelsea player.”One player is heading out of Chelsea, however, with Conte confirming 20-year-old striker Bertrand Traore will join Ajax on loan.“Traore is a good prospect, he’s a prospect for a Chelsea player,” said the Italian.“He’s going on loan to Ajax, he’s a good player. And together the club we prefer to play and to improve, to have a season and to play every game, and then to come back.”Conte has brought in two new players this summer, Michy Batshuayi as well as Kante, and is on the lookout for more new additions.But the 47-year-old says the club are biding their time to wait for the right deal to come along.“For all the clubs, it’s a crazy transfer market,” said Conte.“Not for Chelsea, in general. This market is a bit crazy, because when you try to buy one or another player, the cost is very, very expensive, and not the real valuation of the player.“And it’s a very strange situation. But now we are waiting for the right solution for the club.” 1 Antonio Conte last_img read more


first_imgPatsy in Pink..Irish Athletic Coach Patsy McGonagle pictured with Brigeen Doherty and Grace Boyle at the launch press launch for the forthcoming Run Donegal Women’s 5k which takes place on Sunday, April 6th at 11am.  It starts at the Finn Valley Centre in Stranorlar  The money raised from this year’s event will go towards the purchase of a new baby oxygen delivery machine for the Paediatric Department in Letterkenny General Hospital.  Photo Brian Mc Daid/CristephPATSY LOOKS ‘PRETTY IN PINK’ FOR RUN DONEGAL WOMEN’S 5K was last modified: March 29th, 2014 by StephenShare this:Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window)Click to share on Pocket (Opens in new window)Click to share on Telegram (Opens in new window)Click to share on WhatsApp (Opens in new window)Click to share on Skype (Opens in new window)Click to print (Opens in new window) Tags:Donegal Women’s 5Klast_img read more

QPR v Norwich: Holloway names first line-up

first_imgConor Washington will start up front in Ian Holloway’s first QPR line-up since returning to Loftus Road for a second spell as manager.Holloway, without the injured Steven Caulker and suspended Karl Henry, has included Joel Lynch, while Sandro is among the Rangers substitutes.Norwich, meanwhile, are without defender Ivo Pinto, who has a groin injury.QPR: Smithies, Onuoha, Hall, Lynch, Perch, Cousins, Luongo, Robinson, Chery, Washington, Polter.Subs: Ingram, Borysiuk, El Khayati, Ngbakoto, Shodipo, Sandro, Sylla.Norwich: Ruddy; Martin, Bennett, Bassong, Olsson; Tettey, Dorrans; Ja. Murphy, Naismith, Brady; Oliveira.Subs: McGovern, Whittaker, Jerome, Hoolahan, Klose, Lafferty, Jo. Murphy.Click here for the latest QPR transfer gossipClick here for today’s QPR quiz   Ads by Revcontent Trending Articles Urologists: Men, Forget the Blue Pill! This “Destroys” ED x ‘Genius Pill’ Used By Rich Americans Now Available In Netherlands! x One Cup of This (Before Bed) Burns Belly Fat Like Crazy! x Men, You Don’t Need the Blue Pill if You Do This x What She Did to Lose Weight Stuns Doctors: Do This Daily Before Bed! x Drink This Before Bed, Watch Your Body Fat Melt Like Crazy x Follow West London Sport on TwitterFind us on Facebooklast_img read more

Cousins’ monster game reminds us that the Warriors’ best is yet to come

first_imgWednesday’s 106-104 win over the Rockets was a downright moving experience for both Warriors players and the ball. There was an upstart energy to Golden State’s attack, reminiscent of the early days of the dynasty and a few of their finest moments since.Stephen Curry drove to the basket seconds after the start of the contest, demanding a double-team by establishing his domain from 40 feet out to the rim. Klay Thompson moved around the court in a state of stealth, only to make himself seen …last_img

American turns up the heat

first_imgSeems the signature airplane on the high-profile U.S. transcontinental market is about to be the A321. JetBlue’s stretched version of the Airbus A320 is set to serve New York Kennedy – Los Angeles, and JFK – San Francisco beginning in June 2014. Closer in is American Airlines’ A321T. The airline just took delivery of its first one. The airplane will start flying JFK – LAX in January; Kennedy – SFO in March.JetBlue’s craft will sport premium service, replete with full lie-flat seats up front. So too AA’s Airbuses, with three classes of service: First, Business Class and Main Cabin. The latter offers what AA calls Main Cabin Extra, with up to six inches more legroom. Airlines everywhere are in the midst of fleet renewal just now, dispatching to the desert older fuel-guzzling craft for new, more efficient flying machines. That’s the motive force for the switch. What passengers – especially U.S. domestic premium passengers – get out of this is new amenities. Consider AA’s A321T. It’s fitted with full lie-flat seats in Business as well as First. Passengers farthest up front, in First Class, get unimpeded aisle access.“The A321T aircraft allows us to provide our customers with amenities that, until now, have traditionally been reserved for those traveling internationally,” says Virasb Vahidi, American’s chief commercial officer.Witness the audio/video set-up, the sine qua non of long-distance flying. American’s A321T’s serve up some 200 films, as many as 180 television programs, more than 350 audio selection and up to 20 games. Then there’s Gogo’s upgraded ATG-4 Wi-Fi. You shouldn’t be bored on the 2,456-mile/3,951-km JFK-LAX run, or the somewhat longer 2,567-mile/4,130-km JFK-SFO trip.Such is what you do see. Here’s something you won’t. Up in the cockpit, American Airlines A321Ts will be fitted with something called ROPS – Airbuses’ Runway Overrun Prevention System. Among other things, it boosts pilots’ critical situational awareness during landing. Beats battling space invaders via a video game any day.last_img read more

LinkedIn IPO: What The Analysts Are Saying

first_imgWhy Tech Companies Need Simpler Terms of Servic… Tags:#Analysis#web Business social network LinkedInfiled to go public on the stock market today and is expected to be just one of a number of initial public offerings by tech companies this year. In a survey we ran on ReadWriteWeb earlier this month, 66.04% of respondents said they would consider buying stock in LinkedIn – but what have the professional analysts got to say about the opportunity? Not a lot yet, it turns out. We’ve gathered some of the most interesting reactions so far below.What do you think of those opinions? I think they paint a good picture of the breadth of reactions and they all seem fair to me.LinkedIn says it will be using the money raised for general operating, marketing and acquisitions of other companies. That sounds interesting.Once bidding begins on the stocks issued, the value of the stocks already held by investors and execs will be determined. Nicholas Carlson at Business Insider did some math today and came up with an estimate: That would mean LinkedIn [founder] Reid Hoffman’s 21.4% stake is worth $430 million. CEO Jeff Weiner’s is worth $80 million. [VCs:] Sequoia’s stake – bought for $4.7 million – is worth $380 million, Greylock’s $320 million, Bessemer’s, $100 million.For more business details, see AllThingsD.Not bad. Hopefully the service will grow more useful. It’s certainly just begun to tap into what it could do. marshall kirkpatrick Related Posts center_img Top Reasons to Go With Managed WordPress Hosting 8 Best WordPress Hosting Solutions on the Market A Web Developer’s New Best Friend is the AI Wai…last_img read more

Compete in Acumos AI Open Source Developer Challenge $100,000 in Prizes

first_imgTop Reasons to Go With Managed WordPress Hosting There has been tremendous excitement around the potential for machine learning (ML) technologies that can be applied to Artificial Intelligence (AI). Businesses and investors have been nearly crazy over AI the past few years. Over $11 billion has been invested by venture capitalists (VC’s) in new AI startups during 2014-2016, with an estimated $6 billion more in 2017.Tech giants spent between $20-30 billion on AI in 2016 with technology and finance leading the way. Such investments have enabled numerous consumer services such as Alexa and Siri to become mainstream.The Cost of AI Remains a ProblemDespite those successes, development and deployment of AI applications remain expensive in terms of time and the need for specialized talents. The lack of any common framework for its development has kept AI applications from becoming mainstream as a general solution to IT problems.Acumos AIAcumos is an Open Source Platform which supports training, integration, and deployment of AI models. By creating an open source community around Machine Learning, AT&T will accelerate the transition to AI-based software across a wide range of industrial and commercial problems. These advancements will reach a critical mass of applications. Acumos drives a data-centric process for creating machine learning applications.Introducing the Acumos AI ChallengeThe Acumos AI Challenge is an open source developer competition seeking innovative AI solutions from students, developers, and data scientists. The Acumos AI Challenge will foster development of AI models for the Acumos AI Project, a product of The Linux Foundation. This impressive platform is supported by The Linux Foundation’s LF Deep Learning Foundation.The PrizeAT&T and Tech Mahindra are awarding $100,000 in prizes, as well as the chance for finalists to travel to San Francisco to pitch their solutions during the finals on September 11, 2018. All eligible AI solutions will be available as open source in the Acumos Marketplace.The top three teams will each receive $25,000 cash, plus a trip to the finals in San Francisco in September 2018. The team that wins in the finals will take home an additional $25,000 grand prize, for a total of $50,000.The Acumos AI Challenge is seeking AI solutions across all use cases. Examples include, but are not limited to:5G & SDN– Apps that improve the overall performance and efficiencies of 5G networks and Software-Defined Networking.Media & Entertainment – AI models targeting a media or entertainment use case. Examples include solutions for broadcast media, internet, film, social media, ad campaign analysis, video and image recognition, speech and sound recognition, video insight tools and more.Security – AI apps around network security use cases such as advanced threat protection, cybersecurity, IoT security, etc.Enterprise Solutions – AI models targeting an enterprise use case, including solutions for automotive, home automation, infrastructure, and IoT.The Acumos AI Challenge is accepting submissions between May 31 – August 5, 2018.The competition is open to U.S., District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico residents of a majority age. Teams are required to submit a working AI model, test dataset, and a demo video under three minutes. Teams can register for the Challenge beginning May 31, 2018.We encourage you to register early so that you can begin to plan and build your solution and create your demo video.About the Acumos PlatformAcumos empowers data scientists to publish adaptive AI models, while shielding them from the need to custom develop fully integrated solutions. It packages each model into an independent, containerized microservice, which is fully interoperable with any other Acumos micro-services.These micro-services will work regardless of whether it was built with TensorFlow, SciKit Learn, RCloud, H2O or any other supported toolkit. Models built with any of these tools or any supported language, including Java, Python and R, can be automatically onboarded, packaged and cataloged.These microservices are easy to integrate into practical applications, for any software developer, even without a background in data science or knowledge of any specialized AI development tools.The Marketplace MechanismAcumos provides a Marketplace mechanism for data-powered decision making and artificial intelligence solutions. Self-organized peer groups across one company or across multiple domains can securely share information among themselves. Many discussions and work will be integrated on how AI solutions perform — with ratings, popularity statistics and user-provided reviews, to apply crowd sourcing to software development.The platform aids communication between data scientists and application developers in order to automate the process of user feedback for selecting models while automating error reporting and software updates for models that have been acquired and deployed through the marketplace.Software DevelopersSoftware developers will transition from a code-writing and editing toolkit into a classroom-like code training process. AI models can be acquired from the marketplace, trained, graded on their ability to analyze datasets, and integrated, automatically, into completed solutions.These devs can access encapsulated AI models, without knowing the details of how they work, and connect them to a variety of data sources, using a range of data adaptation brokers, to build complex applications through a simple chaining process.The Acumos Systems will not be Tied to any One Run-Time InfrastructureUnlike many proprietary systems, Acumos is not tied to any one run-time infrastructure or cloud service. Acumos creates an extensive mechanism for packaging, sharing, licensing and deploying AI models. These AI models are published in a secure catalog which is easily distributed between peer systems.Catalogs contain detailed information on ownership and execution requirements of individual microservices so that these can be easily searched with the Acumos Portal. This ensures model selection and deployment is a simple process.If you’re interested in the challenge don’t forget to register now and share this article with your friends and colleagues to compete for the $50,000 prize. To learn more and register for the Acumos AI Challenge, visit the Acumos AI Challenge site today. Acumos is part of the LF Deep Learning Foundation, an umbrella organization within The Linux Foundation that supports and sustains open source innovation in artificial intelligence, machine learning, and deep learning while striving to make these critical new technologies available to developers and data scientists everywhere. Tags:#Acumos#AI#AI Adoption#developers Related Posts The Acumos AI Challenge is an open source developer competition seeking innovative AI solutions from both individuals and teams of students, developers, and data scientistscenter_img Finalists will be flown out to San Fransisco on September 11 to compete for prizesThe Challenge is sponsored by AT&T and Tech Mahindra with $100,000 in prizes1st place = $50,0002nd place = $25,0003rd place = $25,000 AI: How it’s Impacting Surveillance Data Storage A Web Developer’s New Best Friend is the AI Wai… Acumos AI China and America want the AI Prize Title: Who …last_img read more

RCMP remove pipeline protesters from Vancouver bridge

first_imgAnti-Trans Mountain pipeline activists hang from the Ironworkers Memorial Bridge in North Vancouver, B.C. on July 3, 2018. The group blocked an oil tanker from leaving the Burrard Inlet, in protest of the pipeline expansion project. (Submitted by Greenpeace)The Canadian PressGreenpeace Canada says a protest that saw a dozen protesters dangling from a Vancouver bridge to block a tanker carrying crude oil from the Trans Mountain pipeline ended Wednesday night.The environmental group says the climbers who spent more than 35 hours on the Ironworkers Memorial Bridge were “peacefully removed from their positions” and taken to the North Vancouver RCMP detachment.The RCMP had earlier said all would likely be charged with mischief and jeopardizing the safety of a vessel.North Vancouver RCMP Cpl. Richard De Jong said an aerial extraction team began removing and arresting the protesters in the afternoon in what he called a methodic and safe operation.The protest began Tuesday morning when activists rappelled off the side of the bridge to block the Serene Sea, a vessel loaded with crude oil that had left from Kinder Morgan Canada’s Westridge Marine Terminal.The protest was focused only on the Serene Sea but authorities responded by closing all tanker traffic in the area, said Jesse Firempong, a Greenpeace spokeswoman.Deep-sea vessels and vessels with a high air draft, including sail boats with a high mast, were unable to safely pass under the bridge due to the location of the protesters, banners and connecting lines, said Danielle Jang, a spokeswoman with the Vancouver Fraser Port Authority.Smaller traffic such as tugs, barges and small commercial vessels were still able to transit under the bridge, she said.Will George was among those arrested on Wednesday after occupying the bridge for more than 35 hours, said Kwekwecnewtxw – Protect The Inlet, a group formed to oppose the Trans Mountain expansion.“I will remain the fierce opposition. It is in my blood to protect the water. Our Indigenous rights are being completely ignored, the safety of our water is being ignored, and most of all, my son’s future is at stake,” said George, the group’s spokesman and leader.“I will do whatever it takes to protect the water and my family and your family.”Trans Mountain, a subsidiary of Kinder Morgan Canada, said it respects the right to peacefully demonstrate and there are many ways to express opinions in a safe and legal manner.“It is unfortunate that the actions of these individuals have caused disruptions to vessels and individuals that transit to and from the waters east of the Ironworkers Memorial Bridge, including customers from our terminal and the other marine cargo terminals,” it said in a statement.Earlier Wednesday, Premier John Horgan said he was concerned that authorities had closed a rail bridge in response to the protest, resulting in the blockage of a different tanker loaded with refined fuel destined for Vancouver Island.“The protesters, as long as they’re abiding by the law, that’s their right in a free society. But when they start to impact on the business of other people when they start to infringe on the laws of the land, then there’s a concern,” he said.“At this point, as I understand it, it’s a question of the rail bridge is down and that’s the problem.”The Canadian government’s $4.5-billion deal to buy the Trans Mountain pipeline and expansion project is expected to close later this summer.On Tuesday, the company released its construction schedule for the next six months, with work planned in the Lower Mainland and North Thompson areas of B.C., as well as between Edmonton and Jasper National Park in Alberta.Greenpeace said the protesters are from the Coast Salish community, B.C., Alberta, Quebec, Ontario, Washington state, Mexico and the United Kingdom.last_img read more