Lives saved or deaths postponed? Calculating the cost of lockdowns

first_imgThe response to the disease had led to an unprecedented reorganization of societies, with businesses shuttered, stay-at-home orders, medical facilities refocused on treating COVID-19 patients.The economic impact of the measures has caused alarm and division. ‘No choice’Will the long-term ramifications of lockdowns counteract the effect they had on slowing contagion? In a study published on Monday, Imperial College researchers estimated that lockdowns had prevented around 3.1 million deaths in 11 European countries. On Wednesday, Imperial epidemiologist Neil Ferguson told a British parliamentary committee that because of the exponential spread of the virus, locking down just a week earlier would have reduced the final death toll by “at least a half”. But any modeling is based on assumptions — in this case calculations of what would have happened if action had not been taken. Restrictions were imposed after predictions of potentially enormous tolls, said Arthur Caplan, professor of bioethics at New York University.”I don’t think politicians and leaders had a choice,” he said. “If you saw those numbers in the millions of deaths, you had to take steps because you would have had a broken health system, a public that wouldn’t have come out anyway because they would have been terrified.”Caplan said there should be a “broad set of voices” in determining whether the lockdowns were the right solution, but added that the question would be “political”. Topics : No silver linings Now societies are bearing the strain of both a deadly pandemic and a huge economic shock.The virus undercuts the usual “silver linings” of an economic downturn, said Burgard. Populations have been confined inside, reducing access to beneficial physical exercise.People struggling with bereavement, mental health issues or unemployment find it harder to access their normal support networks, with even visits to family members restricted.   And the healthcare sector itself has been battered by the virus, with frontline staff at risk of infection while treatments for other illnesses have been postponed.Even in normal times, any positive effects seen in economic downturns are often in richer nations. “The opposite seems true in many low- and middle-income countries, where mortality actually increases during recession,” said Thomas Hone, a public health researcher at Imperial College London. He said this may suggest that what protects people from the harms of recessions are “strong health systems and social security nets”.Many fear the scale of the pandemic and economic downturn will disproportionately hurt the most vulnerable.UN agencies and the vaccine alliance Gavi have said virus restrictions caused immunizations to be disrupted in nearly 70 countries, affecting some 80 million children under the age of one and threatening a resurgence of preventable diseases like polio and measles.The World Food Program estimates the number of people facing acute hunger this year could nearly double — to 265 million.  While lockdowns undoubtedly avoided large numbers of deaths from the new coronavirus, the repercussions of the pandemic response are expected to blight economies and health systems long after restrictions are lifted.So how can we quantify the costs and benefits of one of the largest public health interventions ever? “This is a very difficult calculation to make,” Sarah Burgard, a sociologist at the University of Michigan, told AFP. center_img ‘Unknown situation’ In a study published in 2000, the American economist Christopher Ruhm asked a provocative question: “Are recessions good for your health?”His research found that a rise in unemployment sharpened stresses on mental health, causing increases in substance abuse and suicide. But there were unexpected benefits for physical health: road accidents and pollution reduced, while people had more time for exercise.   Reflecting on his work two decades later, Ruhm said that in a normal economic slump “when unemployment was high, mortality was low and vice versa”. But the coronavirus-induced recession is not a normal economic downturn. “We are in an unknown situation,” Ruhm said in an April online talk for the University of Virginia, where he is a professor of public policy and economics.”I think it may be the first time in history that we are actually deliberately creating a recession, not because we want to create a recession, but because this health threat is so real.” According to official counts, the virus has infected at least 7.4 million people around the world and more than 415,000 have died.Burgard said in the end it may prove difficult to untangle how many deaths were caused by COVID-19 and how many by “the chaos and fallout” of the crisis. “I don’t have a lot of faith that we are going to be able to come up with a very clear number,” she said. Even if a figure is reached, decisions over its implications would be “heavily political and ethically complex”.last_img read more

Is Wolves vs Man Utd on TV? Channel, live stream, time, odds, team news and head-to-head

first_img Head-to-head in last five meetings Skip Full Screen Read More Read More Advertisement 1/1 by Metro Manchester United captain Harry Maguire MORE: Arsenal looking to replace Denis Suarez with Bournemouth star Ryan FraserMORE: Jamie Carragher says Manchester United star Marcus Rashford has been a ‘revelation’ under Solskjaer Phil HaighTuesday 2 Apr 2019 8:49 amShare this article via facebookShare this article via twitterShare this article via messengerShare this with Share this article via emailShare this article via flipboardCopy link Top articles Read More About Connatix V67539 Skip Ad / PLAY center_img Read More Comment Video Settings Rio Ferdinand tells Ole Gunnar Solskjaer to drop struggling Is Wolves vs Man Utd on TV? Channel, live stream, time, odds, team news and head-to-head Visit Advertiser website GO TO PAGE Coming Next Manchester United are coming off a win over Watford on Saturday (Picture: Getty Images)Manchester United have the chance to go third in the Premier League on Tuesday night when they travel to take on Wolverhampton Wanderers.Victory for the Red Devils would see them climb above Spurs and Arsenal into the top three, while a draw would take them into fourth, above Tottenham.Rio Ferdinand urges Ole Gunnar Solskjaer to drop Manchester United starWolves are seventh in the table and will not catch Chelsea in the place above them, but there is just two points between them and West Ham in 11th, so they could fall down the division pretty quickly.The sides met as recently as last month when Wolves knocked United out of the FA Cup in the quarter-finals.ADVERTISEMENT Wolverhampton Wanderers have caused some big upsets this season (Picture: Getty Images)When is Wolves vs Man Utd?AdvertisementAdvertisementThe match is on Tuesday 2 April with kick-off at 7.45pm at Molineux.What TV channel is Wolves vs Man Utd on and is there a live stream?Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Premier League will be showing the game live with coverage starting at 7.30pm.Subscribers can stream the action on Sky Go or on the Sky Sports app. Read More Ole Gunnar Solskjaer was confirmed as permanent Man Utd manager last week (Picture: AFP/Getty Images)Team newsWith an FA Cup semi-final against Watford on Sunday and little to play for in the league, Wolves may rest a few players ahead of the trip to Wembley.Although, Nuno Espirito Santo largely has a fit squad to choose from at Molineux.Ole Gunnar Solskjaer should have Anthony Martial available, but Antonio Valencia, Eric Bailly and Alexis Sanchez all remain out.What are the odds? (Courtesy of Betfair)31/10 Wolves5/2 DrawEVS Man UtdMore: FootballChelsea defender Fikayo Tomori reveals why he made U-turn over transfer deadline day moveMikel Arteta rates Thomas Partey’s chances of making his Arsenal debut vs Man CityBruno Fernandes responds to Man Utd bust-up rumours with Ole Gunnar Solskjaer SPONSORED Advertisement 1 min. story 16 Mar 2019 – Wolves 2-0 Man Utd – FA Cup22 Sep 2018 – Man Utd 1-1 Wolves – Premier League18 Mar 2012 – Wolves 0-5 Man Utd – Premier League10 Dec 2011 – Man Utd 4-1 Wolves – Premier League05 Feb 2011 – Wolves 2-1 Man Utd – Premier Leaguelast_img read more

UK roundup: National Grid scheme names renewables manager

first_imgThe Pension Protection Fund (PPF), the body that protects members of UK defined benefit pension schemes, has reached its 1,000th scheme milestone as the retirement benefits of almost 4,000 members of the Carillion Rail (GTRM) Pension Scheme have been secured following its transfer to the lifeboat scheme.Members that were over the scheme’s normal pension age at the time of insolvency will receive 100% of what was in payment at that time, and those under that age will receive 90% subject to a cap.Without the PPF, members of the scheme would have received a share of the assets following the insolvency of the sponsoring employer amounting to 55% of their promised pension.The PPF now manages £32bn €37.6bn) of assets for close to 260,000 members located across the UK and globally.Currently, PPF membership is split between almost 155,000 already receiving their pensions and close to 105,000 members who will start their payments in futureCambridge Associates hires investment directorBen Alves Walters has been appointed an investment director within the pensions practice at Cambridge Associates. Based in London, he will work primarily with European pension funds helping clients invest, manage and monitor their global private investment allocations.He joined Cambridge Associates this month after more than two and a half years in the manager research investment team at Willis Towers Watson (WTW). Prior to WTW, he trained as a chartered accountant at PwC, before moving internally into the transaction services division. The National Grid UK Pension Scheme (NGUKPS) has selected Octopus Renewables, the specialist clean energy investor and part of Octopus Group, to manage a new UK corporate pension mandate to invest £185m (€217m) in UK solar and onshore wind assets.The funds will be invested through the Renewable Energy Income Partnership III (REIP III), the third fund in Octopus Renewables’ institutional investor income partnership strategy.Octopus has discretion in managing the 25-year mandate, which benefits from its attractive pipeline of opportunities and proven origination capability. Octopus Renewables is the largest commercial scale solar energy investor in Europe and has more than £3.2bn of energy assets under management.PPF reaches 1,000th scheme milestonelast_img read more

Motive Offshore Welcomes New Finance Director

first_imgMarine equipment specialist Motive Offshore has made a strategic appointment to support ambitious growth plans for the coming year as it continues to post record results.The company has seen a record turnover for 2018 and is set to exceed its projected 20% increase on the previous year.To support founding directors James Gregg and Dave Acton with their ongoing growth strategy for the business, John Brebner has joined the management team as finance director as Motive plans to start on the acquisition trail in 2019.Brebner, who has been a non-executive director on Motive’s board since February last year, is a finance specialist with 34 years banking experience and is a seasoned advisor to SME and corporate businesses. He is currently also a non-executive director with Aberdeen Harbour Board, president of Aberdeen Chamber of Commerce and supports the board of local charity, Befriend a Child.Motive Offshore Group specialises in the manufacture, rental and servicing of high quality marine equipment and associated services to the onshore and offshore oil and gas and marine industries.Facing risk of closure in 2014/2015, the directors successfully traded out of the issues and through careful restructuring, survived the downturn and turned the business towards a more financially secure position.Motive now employs 94 staff at its base in Boyndie and office in Dyce, Aberdeen. The company also launched in Houston this year and ongoing major contract wins in the UAE for Motive FZC has resulted in a significant growth of its workforce.last_img read more

Damus Qualifies for 2007 U.S. Amateur Public Links

first_img June 21, 2007FARMINGDALE, N.Y. – After a successful 2006-07 season, West Florida men’s golfer Federico Damus (Posadas, Argentina) is continuing to play this summer. On Wednesday Damus qualified for the 2007 U.S. Amateur Public Links Championships next month.Damus earned a spot in the championships after qualifying at the sectional tournament at the Blue Course at Bethpage in Farmington, N.Y. He birdied the first hole of a three-way playoff to earn one of the final two qualifying spots. He finished the tournament with a two-round 144 (69-75).Damus will participate in next month’s championships at Cantigny Golf Club in Wheaton, Ill. The tournament will be held from July 9-14.The U.S. Amateur Public Links Championship is one of 10 individual amateur championships organized by the United States Golf Association. The winner of the event earns an invitation to the following year’s Masters if the winner is still an amateur at the time of the event. Previous winners of the event have included Professional Golf Association golfers Ryan Moore, Tim Clark, Trevor Immelman and Billy MayfairPrint Friendly Version Damus Qualifies for 2007 U.S. Amateur Public Links Sharelast_img read more

Twisters Whitewash Lancers On The Diamond

first_imgOA at Edinburgh Varsity Baseball, April 15th.OA          006 (10) 0            16  11   1Ed           000 00                   0     2     1For OA: Adam Huber  2-3, bb, 3 runs, rbi; Andrew Oesterling 3-3, double, 2 runs, rbi, bb; Chris Hautman 2-3, bb, 2 runs, Grand Slam HR, 5 rbi; Race Carle 1-2, 2 runs, 3 run Home run, 3 rbi, hbp; Pros Moorman 0-1, rbi; Matt Sedler 1-2, run, bb, sb; Riley Schebler 1-2, 2 runs, two run Home run, 2 rbi, 2 bb, sb; Michael Hoff 0-1, run, bb; Patrick Thompson 0-3, run, sb; Jordan Stenger 1-2, 2 runs, 2 bb.Riley Schebler 5 IP, 0 runs, 2 hits, 6 k, 3 bb, hbp    Win,Varsity record: 4-5Next game: Today at Greenwood Christian Academy.Courtesy of Twisters Coach Doug Behlmer.last_img

Pardew ‘pushing’ for new faces

first_imgNewcastle boss Alan Pardew has revealed he is badgering director of football Joe Kinnear to make a breakthrough in the transfer market. Pardew told the Chronicle: “I’m pushing Joe to get a transfer in. I think we need a boost now. “We are in a situation where we want to progress now. The team is in a good place.” Pardew’s main focus for the summer was always going to be his frontline, and the club’s dual pursuit of Lyon’s Bafetimbi Gomis and Aston Villa’s Darren Bent is ongoing. However, Papiss Cisse’s position remains unclear with the striker still in dispute with the club over wearing the name of sponsor Wonga on his shirt and training kit on religious grounds, although his case has not been helped by pictures purporting to show him at a city casino. The Senegal international has enlisted the help of the Professional Footballers’ Association in his efforts to find a solution but there has so far been little tangible progress. Shola Ameobi scored Newcastle’s equaliser amid rumours he could leave this summer, although given his lack of strength in depth, Pardew is reluctant to allow that to happen. He said: “Shola is a player that is under contract here. He’s not made any noises to me that he wants to leave. Certainly with my striker situation at the moment, I need as many as I can get.” Press Associationcenter_img Kinnear vowed to implement the club’s recruitment plans swiftly after holding talks with Pardew and chief scout Graham Carr following his appointment last month. However, the Magpies went into Tuesday night’s 1-1 friendly draw with Pacos de Ferreira in Portugal without a new signing on board and with full-back Shane Ferguson having followed Steve Harper, Danny Simpson and James Perch out of the club, having signed a season-long loan deal with Birmingham. last_img read more

We will improve talent pool – Dyke

first_img Dyke said: “The intention of my speech regarding the development and progression of English players was to discover why there are fewer and fewer English players at the top level, and the point of any debate is to find solutions. “I am very keen that the commission work with everyone in football and particularly the Premier League, both as an organisation and its individual member clubs. Clearly they have a lot to contribute to the process. “We already know there is a lot of good work going on but I suspect there is more to be done. “I am pleased that the Premier League clubs, board and executive all want to contribute to the commission I am setting up. There is a great deal of knowledge there and I am sure we will be able to find some very concrete ways of improving the pool of talent available to England managers.” Dyke’s comments were part of a statement released on Thursday which said: “The Premier League clubs today met and affirmed their commitment to engaging in a collaborative and co-operative manner with the debate and process outlined by the FA chairman in his recent speech. “The Premier League clubs, board and executive will all contribute their expertise, knowledge and understanding of the issues and challenges in regard to producing England qualified-talent who are of the requisite quality to play both at Premier League and international level.” Premier League chairman Anthony Fry said: “It is evident from discussions with the clubs that there is a strong desire to see greater numbers of England-qualified players coming through their academy systems that are capable of performing at both Premier League and international standard.” Fry said the new youth development system – the Elite Player Performance Plan – demonstrated the clubs’ commitment. He added: “There is no doubt around the Premier League table as to the benefits of a national set-up that is thriving and performing well. “That is why the Premier League clubs, board and executive all signed up to contributing to the process of debate initiated by Greg and helping to identify any appropriate outcomes that will serve to improve standards and delivery in respect of player development.” Dyke last week made a speech in which he said the “frightening trend” of the reduction in the number of England-qualified players in the top flight needed addressing. With a view to improving the prospects of the national side, he pledged to create a commission that would find a solution to the problem and on Thursday the Premier League confirmed, following a meeting attended by its 20 club chairmen and Dyke, that it would be a part of the process. Press Associationcenter_img Football Association chairman Greg Dyke has expressed his delight and confidence in what lies ahead after the Premier League declared its commitment to the commission he is setting up to try to boost the England team.last_img read more

Team of possible transfers

first_img Likelihood of transfer happening: five out of 10. RB: Sam Byram (Leeds) – exciting 21-year-old right-back with one year left on his contract. Has been watched several times by Everton. Likelihood of transfer happening: six out of 10. CB: John Stones (Everton) – Jose Mourinho thinks Chelsea lack pace at centre-half and is desperate to sign the young England defender despite Everton insisting they will not sell. Likelihood of transfer happening: eight out of 10. CB: Nicolas Otamendi (Valencia) – Manchester City are said to be on the verge of signing the Argentinian centre-half, who may prove to be a dependable partner for Vincent Kompany. Likelihood of transfer happening: nine out of 10. LB: Ashley Cole (Free agent) – Everton are said to be interested in signing the recently released left-back as a short-term replacement for the injured Leighton Baines. (4-4-2 diamond) De Gea; Byram, Otamendi, Stones, Cole; De Bruyne, Carvalho, Januzaj, Pedro; Berahino, Benzema. GK: David de Gea (Manchester United) – coveted by Real Madrid all summer, but United insist they will not sell unless they get at least £35million for the Spaniard. Press Association Press Association Sport has created a team of transfers that could happen before the 6pm deadline on September 1. Likelihood of transfer happening: five out of 10. RM: Kevin de Bruyne (Wolfsburg) – Manchester City are looking to sign the Belgian, who was named Bundesliga player of the year last term. Likelihood of transfer happening: nine out of 10. CM: William Carvalho (Sporting Lisbon) – seems exactly the kind of player Arsenal need to protect their back line, but Real Madrid are also interested in the 23-year-old Portuguese. Likelihood of transfer happening: two out of 10. CM: Adnan Januzaj (Manchester United) – of interest to Sunderland, who want to give the 20-year-old Belgian regular first-team football as part of a loan deal. Likelihood of transfer happening: five out of 10. LM: Pedro (Barcelona) – the Spaniard wants regular first-team football and Manchester United are working hard to seal a deal for the forward, who has a release clause of 30 million euros (£21.1million) written into his contract. Likelihood of transfer happening: eight out of 10. CF: Saido Berahino (West Brom) – Tottenham have had a bid for the England Under-21 international rejected as they look to provide back-up for Harry Kane. Likelihood of transfer happening: eight out of 10. CF: Karim Benzema (Real Madrid) – Arsenal are known admirers of the striker, who continues to be linked with a move away from the Bernabeu despite enjoying six relatively successful years at the club. Likelihood of transfer happening: six out of 10. last_img read more

Suspect withholds trial plea

first_imgBrandon Spencer, a suspect in the Halloween shooting that occurred near the Ronald Tutor Campus Center and  left four wounded, chose to withhold a plea on Wednesday during his preliminary hearing, where he was charged with four counts of attempted murder, according to the Los Angeles County District Attorney’s Office.During the preliminary hearing, the judge determined there was enough evidence to proceed to an arraignment. Spencer’s arraignment will be held on March 28. If convicted of the crime, Spencer could face life in prison.Spencer, 20 and a non-USC student, was charged on Nov. 5, 2012 with four counts of attempted murder after he allegedly opened fire at an on-campus Halloween party that was hosted by the Black Student Assembly and promoted by LA Hype.Deputy District Attorney Antonella Nistorescu from the Hardcore Gang Division is prosecuting the case. Attorney James Simmons is defending Spencer. Though Spencer did not enter a plea on Wednesday, he pled not guilty during his November arraignment, the Daily Trojan  reported Nov. 5. His bail was set at $2.04 million.Los Angeles Police Department officers arrested two men on the night of the incident, but Spencer was the only one charged.Though several hundred students attended the party, there were only four reports of people suffering from wounds. Geno Hall, a former football player at Crenshaw High School, was among the victims seriously injured in the shooting. Spencer allegedly shot him after the two men got in a verbal dispute.Spencer, a security guard, is a resident of the Inglewood neighborhood, the Daily Trojan. reported Nov. 5. Simmons said he was scheduled to begin a nursing and EMT program at UCLA on Nov. 6, 2012.After the shooting incident, the administration changed its security policy at the beginning of the spring 2013 semester. Students are now required to sign in visitors and present their IDs when entering campus between 9 p.m. and 6 a.m.last_img read more